Electric vehicles & energy · Optimus humanoid
Tesla
An EV and energy company that aims — via the Optimus humanoid — to be the demand apex of Physical AI, a demand hub pulling in a vast component chain of reducers, motors, AI chips and batteries. On its Q3 2025 call it set a 1M-units/year Optimus target and a ~$20k unit price at scale and pre-announced a mass-production Gen 3 in 2026, and that target front-loads upstream demand for Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco reducers and Nidec motors. But with EVs — its current revenue core — in a sales slowdown, the key question is whether the pace of FSD, robotaxi and Optimus can offset EV maturation.
Business categories Automakers · Automotive & Mobility · primary Industrial Robots · Industrial Automation & Robotics Autonomous Driving Platforms · Automotive & Mobility
TSLA Updated Sep 24, 2026 6 AI consumers· 6 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Tesla is directly linked to 16 companies (14 supply, 2 revenue relationships) and reaches 67 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 21 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-09-24).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · Optimus 1M units/yr target ($20k)
- Customer concentration · Physical-AI demand apex; sources reducers, motors, AI chips.
- Segments · EVs · Energy/storage · Optimus humanoid
Revenue from
- PG&E Corporation High confidence· Count 256 Megapack units · Elkhorn facility commissioned in 2022 · Tesla Megapacks installed at PG&E-owned Elkhorn facility
Tesla works with PG&E to design, build, and maintain the Elkhorn battery storage facility, which contains 256 Tesla Megapacks.Confirms EN Pacific Gas and Electric Company Published Feb 23, 2026: PG&E Elkhorn Battery Energy Storage System Emergency Action PlanConfirms EN TLG Services / California Public Utilities Commission Published Dec 17, 2024: Elkhorn Energy Storage Facility Dismantling Cost StudyConfirms KO Shinhan Investment Corp. Published Sep 23, 2022: Shinhan Global Daily, September 23, 2022 - automotive · energy (consumers · enterprises) High confidence
EV and energy-storage sales — the current revenue core, though EVs are in a sales slowdown. - Edison International High confidence
Tesla entered into commercial agreements with Edison International to supply Tesla Powerpacks for storage projects at SCE and then-subsidiary SoCore Energy, while the counterparty-specific contract value was not disclosed.Confirms EN Edison International Newsroom Published May 1, 2015: Edison International Teams Up with Tesla for Battery Storage Projects - Optimus · robotaxi · FSD (new) Medium confidence
Optimus humanoid, robotaxi and FSD — a new demand axis targeting 1M units/yr at ~$20k.
Pays to
- Panasonic Energy High confidence· capacity 41 GWh · 네바다 · Nevada 2170 cell supply
Long-standing core battery supplier; Tesla buys 2170 cylindrical cells from Nevada and Kansas.Confirms EN Panasonic North America Published Jul 14, 2025: Panasonic Energy Begins Mass Production at New Kansas Battery Factory, ~32 GWh - BYD High confidence· capacity 8 GWh/yr · 2025~ · FinDreams ESS LFP cell supply
Sources LFP ESS cells (up to 8 GWh/yr) from BYD's FinDreams unit for the Shanghai Megafactory.Confirms EN CnEVPost Published Jun 5, 2024: BYD FinDreams unit to supply battery cells to Tesla Shanghai Megafactory - LG Energy Solution High confidence· Contract value $4.3B · 2027~2030 · LFP ESS cell supply (Megapack 3)
Supplies LFP prismatic ESS cells for Megapack 3 ($4.3B, 2027–2030) and 2170 cylindrical cells.Confirms EN Electrek Published Mar 17, 2026: Tesla-LG Energy Solution $4.3 billion LFP battery deal for Megapack confirmed - Harmonic Drive Systems High confidence
Sources Harmonic Drive harmonic reducers for Optimus joints. - CATL High confidence
Sources EV and robot batteries from CATL. - Samsung SDI Medium confidence· deal value $2.1B · 2026~ · ESS LFP cell supply (media report)
Reported to supply ~$2.1B of LFP ESS cells for Megapack/Powerwall (from ~2026, Kokomo). - Albemarle Medium confidence· Amount 1.2 USD10억 · 다년 공급계약 · Tesla lithium supply agreement (reported)
Tesla sources battery lithium from Albemarle (a reported supply deal worth about $1.2 billion).Confirms EN MineListings Published Apr 12, 2026: Tesla's $1.2 Billion Lithium Supply Deal with Albemarle - Nidec Medium confidence
Sources Nidec motors and actuators for Optimus joints. - Nabtesco Medium confidence
Sources Nabtesco RV reducers for Optimus joints. - NVIDIA Medium confidence
Uses NVIDIA GPUs for AI training and some inference (beyond Dojo). - Samsung Electronics Medium confidence
Sources FSD/infotainment chips and displays from Samsung.Confirms EN Isaiah Research Published Aug 7, 2025: Tesla AI6 Marks Samsung's Largest Foundry Win – $16.5B - Ganfeng Lithium Medium confidence
Tesla has sourced battery-grade lithium hydroxide from Ganfeng Lithium, under a 2022-2024 three-year contract following a 2018-2020 deal.Confirms EN MINING.COM Published Nov 1, 2021: Ganfeng Lithium lands three-year supply deal with Tesla - Analog Devices Medium confidence
Two ADI audio processors are inside Tesla's FSD Computer HW4.0 (teardown). ADI's flagship automotive BMS win is GM (non-node); the Tesla content is FSD audio.Confirms EN TechInsights Published Jul 1, 2023: Teardown of Tesla FSD Computer HW4.0 (ADI audio processors) - 화낙 Medium confidence
Supplies robots for Tesla's Fremont lines: ~600 FANUC robots before the Model 3 ramp (confirmed by FANUC America), deployed alongside KUKA on ~1,000-robot lines (values undisclosed).Confirms EN Electrek Published Sep 1, 2016: Tesla Model 3: robot supplier vows on-time line bring-up - Batteries · materials (undisclosed) Low confidence
Batteries, cells and materials.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edison International | lead1 | +13.6 | -2.6 | +17.4 | +15.2 | -20.4 | -1.7 |
| PG&E Corporation | lead1 | -2.6 | +33.9 | +10.9 | +12.3 | -19.7 | -17.5 |
| Tesla | node | +49.8 | -65 | +101.7 | +62.5 | +11.4 | -14.9 |
| Panasonic Energy | benef1 | -5.7 | -1.6 | +20.1 | +16.6 | +36.2 | +113.1 |
| Harmonic Drive Systems | benef1 | -42.7 | -2.5 | -16.1 | +24.9 | -23.8 | +68.9 |
| Samsung SDI | benef1 | -19 | +15.8 | -45.7 | -40.2 | +75.7 | +45.9 |
| NVIDIA | benef1 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +23.2 |
| Nabtesco | benef1 | -22.8 | +9 | -22.3 | +0.4 | +54.1 | +7.5 |
| CATL | benef1 | +67.4 | -21.4 | -40.6 | +74.5 | +39.4 | +2.2 |
| FANUC | benef1 | -16.5 | +4.4 | -8.1 | +15.6 | +37.7 | -4.5 |
| Nidec | benef1 | -26.8 | -28.4 | -21.9 | -1.7 | -17.4 | -8.9 |
| Ganfeng Lithium | benef1 | +12 | -17.4 | -56.1 | +0.1 | +108.3 | -33.5 |
| Nan Ya PCB | benef2 | +110.6 | -46.7 | -0.5 | -38.3 | +188.2 | +280.5 |
| Micron Technology | benef2 | +24.2 | -45.9 | +71.9 | -1 | +240.2 | +256.4 |
| Unimicron | benef2 | +133.5 | -30.2 | +35.2 | -19.7 | +175.7 | +236.2 |
| ASE Technology | benef2 | +38.3 | -12.8 | +60.9 | +10.1 | +65.6 | +191.3 |
| Nebius Group | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +202.2 | +170.5 |
| Kioxia | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +1082.1 | +155 |
| Ibiden | benef2 | +30.4 | -19.6 | +51.6 | -38.6 | +261 | +149.3 |
| Lumentum | benef2 | +11.6 | -50.7 | +0.5 | +60.1 | +339.1 | +139.1 |
| Murata Manufacturing | benef2 | -14 | -11.7 | +24.7 | -16.5 | +29.9 | +131.5 |
| Astera Labs | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +25.6 | +105.7 |
| SK hynix | benef2 | -0.4 | -25.6 | +53.9 | +48.6 | +361.1 | +85.3 |
| Corning | benef2 | +5.9 | -11.6 | -1.2 | +60.6 | +87.8 | +77.2 |
| LS ELECTRIC | benef2 | -19.2 | +11.4 | +37.4 | +234.2 | +145 | +73.2 |
| Coherent | benef2 | -10 | -48.6 | +24 | +117.6 | +94.8 | +69.4 |
| Samsung Electronics | benef2 | -9 | -14.2 | +20.9 | -26.4 | +212.9 | +63.8 |
| Delta Electronics | benef2 | -3.4 | +10.4 | -0.3 | +59.2 | +183.8 | +61.9 |
| Keysight Technologies | benef2 | +56.3 | -17.2 | -7 | +1 | +26.5 | +61 |
| Monolithic Power | benef2 | +35.5 | -27.8 | +79.8 | -5.6 | +54.5 | +53.7 |
| Analog Devices | benef2 | +21 | -4.9 | +23.4 | +8.8 | +29.8 | +51.1 |
| TSMC | benef2 | +12.1 | -36.7 | +42.3 | +92.6 | +55.9 | +50.3 |
| Wistron | benef2 | +7.9 | +9.7 | +272.7 | -1.6 | +22.7 | +49.7 |
| Lotte Energy Materials | benef2 | +31.5 | -32.9 | -49.3 | -30 | +75.8 | +42.1 |
| onsemi | benef2 | +107.5 | -8.2 | +33.9 | -24.5 | -14.1 | +37.4 |
| Pegatron | benef2 | -5.9 | +0.6 | +35.3 | +21.2 | -23.8 | +34.5 |
| Amphenol | benef2 | +34.9 | -12 | +31.5 | +41.3 | +96.1 | +29.8 |
| Eoptolink | benef2 | -10.1 | -27.7 | +136.6 | +197 | +368.8 | +29.1 |
| InnoLight | benef2 | -30.7 | -18.3 | +253.7 | +12 | +468.1 | +25.6 |
| Digital Realty | benef2 | +30.7 | -41 | +39.9 | +35.9 | -10.1 | +23.4 |
| ABB | benef2 | +23.9 | +7.3 | +18.9 | +39 | +36.1 | +18.4 |
| Umicore | benef2 | -27.5 | +5.9 | -37.1 | -51.4 | +111.6 | +17 |
| Sumitomo Metal Mining | benef2 | +20.5 | +5.4 | -19.4 | -10.2 | +168.7 | +9.5 |
| Asahi Kasei | benef2 | -1.1 | -9.3 | +18.7 | -2.9 | +47.1 | +8.7 |
| King Yuan Electronics (KYEC) | benef2 | +26.7 | -7.7 | +132.4 | +38.6 | +171 | +8.4 |
| Recursion Pharmaceuticals | benef2 | · | -55 | +27.9 | -31.4 | -39.5 | +6.6 |
| BlackRock | benef2 | +29.4 | -20.4 | +17.9 | +29.3 | +6.6 | +2.8 |
| TE Connectivity | benef2 | +35.1 | -27.7 | +24.6 | +3.5 | +61.1 | -3 |
| Yunnan Energy New Material (SEMCORP) | benef2 | +92.8 | -38.6 | -72.6 | -29.2 | +76.4 | -5.3 |
| Luxshare Precision | benef2 | -11.9 | -30.2 | -21.2 | +58.8 | +29.3 | -7.4 |
| L&F | benef2 | +139.2 | +22.4 | -30.3 | -38.6 | +43.4 | -8 |
| Advanced Nano Products | benef2 | +56.8 | +66.4 | +13.9 | -30.9 | +5.5 | -8.1 |
| LG Chem | benef2 | -29 | +9.7 | -36.6 | -45.3 | +31.2 | -8.6 |
| Cosmo Advanced Materials & Technology | benef2 | +121.4 | +48.7 | +128.9 | -60.4 | -3.4 | -9.3 |
| Tinci Materials | benef2 | +68.3 | +5.6 | -61.4 | -0.7 | +124.2 | -16.2 |
| POSCO Future M | benef2 | -17.7 | +97.6 | +16.3 | -43.6 | +56.5 | -17.8 |
| Ronbay Technology | benef2 | +96.6 | -39.1 | -63.6 | +12.3 | +47.7 | -20 |
| BYD Electronics | benef2 | -56.1 | +16 | -0.4 | +60.6 | -19.4 | -24.1 |
| SKC | benef2 | +18.1 | -31.9 | -19.7 | +104.3 | -25.4 | -28 |
| Chunbo | benef2 | +40.4 | -7.3 | -65 | -55.6 | +59.1 | -32.5 |
| PNT (People & Technology) | benef2 | +62.2 | +11.6 | -17.8 | +12.2 | +31.1 | -44.3 |
| EcoPro BM | benef2 | +79.2 | +23.9 | +113.5 | -38.6 | +77.1 | -54.3 |
| Enchem | benef2 | · | -37.4 | +173.9 | -20.5 | -26.1 | -79 |
YTD as of 2026-10-09 · source: Yahoo Finance
Tesla operates across NASDAQ, Physical-AI demand apex, Optimus humanoid. After +11.4% in 2025, it corrected -21.3% in 2026. The supply side (avg +39.8%) leads the stock (-21.3%), with spending rippling down to suppliers first. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is Panasonic Energy (+98.1%) and the furthest behind is LG Energy Solution (-9.9%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. But with EVs — its current revenue core — in a sales slowdown, the key question is whether the pace of FSD, robotaxi and Optimus can offset EV maturation.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 1 · Hold 2 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $500 · Price $382.76 (10-10) · Upside +31%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan · Rajat Gupta | Hold | $475 | Jun 5, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Wedbush Securities · Daniel Ives | Outperform | $600 | Apr 23, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Morgan Stanley · Andrew Percoco | Hold | $425 | Dec 8, 2025 | Report ↗ |
Consensus is Hold. Average target near $395 but views split from Wedbush's $600 bull case to GLJ's $25 bear case; JPMorgan's upgrade to Neutral ($475) marks the shift to an autonomy/robotics narrative.
Analyses covering this node
- What revived the battery cycle is ESS, not EVs, and its root is again the AI datacenter Jun 24, 2026
- Many clocks: the information a single average erases Jun 23, 2026
← All companiesMarkdown · JSON · Customers · Suppliers · Ripple · Consensus