Nearline HDD (AI mass storage)
Seagate Technology
A mass-capacity nearline-HDD duopolist. AI-data explosion drove Q4 revenue $2.44B (+30%), with nearline 91% of mass-capacity exabytes (137EB, +52%). With a HAMR 40TB/44TB roadmap, it is qualified at 3 of 8 global hyperscalers and its 2026 production is already sold out. A picks-and-shovels layer storing AI training and inference data, a mass-storage axis distinct from NAND.
Business categories Data Storage · AI Compute Infrastructure · primary
STX Updated Jul 12, 2026 5 AI consumers· 4 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Seagate Technology is directly linked to 4 companies (2 supply, 2 revenue relationships) and reaches 48 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 7 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · Q4 2025 revenue $2.44B (+30%)
- Customer concentration · 91% nearline; hyperscalers; 2026 sold out.
- Segments · Nearline HDD (cloud) · Legacy/other
Revenue from
- hyperscalers (nearline cloud) High confidence
Nearline HDDs to hyperscalers (91% of mass capacity, 137EB). - Amazon Medium confidence
Supplies mass-capacity nearline HDDs to cloud like AWS — with nearline at 91% of mass-capacity exabytes, Amazon-scale hyperscaler demand is the center of Seagate's revenue. - Microsoft Medium confidence
Supplies HAMR-qualified nearline HDDs to hyperscalers like Microsoft — AI-data accumulation flows into high-capacity drive demand, so hyperscaler qualification (3 of 8) is the gateway to volume visibility.
Pays to
- 파이슨 High confidence
SSD controller procurement: Phison controllers in mainstream SATA SSDs since 2017; co-designed X1 enterprise controller in 2022.Confirms EN StorageNewsletter Published Aug 12, 2022: Phison X1 Controller Platform Designed in Partnership With Seagate - HDD glass substrate (Hoya) Medium confidence
Sources glass substrates for Mozaic (HAMR) media from Hoya, the dominant glass-substrate supplier.Mentions EN Tom's Hardware Published May 15, 2025: HDD components maker Hoya describes 22TB & 24TB hard drives - HAMR capacity expansion · R&D (undisclosed) Low confidence
HAMR 40/44TB capacity and R&D. - heads, media & components (undisclosed) Low confidence
Heads, media and mechanical parts.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike | lead2 | -3.3 | -48.6 | +142.5 | +34 | +37 | +134.7 |
| Palo Alto Networks | lead2 | +56.7 | -24.8 | +111.3 | +23.4 | +1.2 | +127.4 |
| Datadog | lead2 | +80.9 | -58.7 | +65.1 | +17.7 | -4.8 | +115.6 |
| Snowflake | lead2 | +20.4 | -57.6 | +38.6 | -22.4 | +42.1 | +68.2 |
| Illumina | lead2 | +2.8 | -46.9 | -31.1 | -1.3 | -1.8 | +66.4 |
| Schrodinger | lead2 | -56 | -46.3 | +91.5 | -46.1 | -7.3 | +52.6 |
| Schlumberger | lead2 | +39.6 | +81.2 | -0.8 | -24.5 | +3.3 | +52.3 |
| Airbnb Inc | lead2 | · | -48.6 | +59.2 | -3.5 | +3.3 | +34.1 |
| Labcorp Holdings Inc. | lead2 | +54.4 | -24.4 | +13.8 | +2.2 | +10.6 | +25.3 |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company | lead2 | +1.9 | +5.1 | -2.7 | -5.4 | -12.6 | +22.8 |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | lead2 | +62.9 | -41.7 | +34.2 | +38.4 | +10 | +21.8 |
| Carrier Global Corporation | lead2 | +45.3 | -22.7 | +41.5 | +20.3 | -21.8 | +14.3 |
| Waters Corporation | lead2 | +50.6 | -8.1 | -3.9 | +12.7 | +2.4 | +14.2 |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc. | lead2 | +41.2 | -24.8 | +22.6 | -6.2 | +38.4 | +12.3 |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc. | lead2 | +35.5 | -5.5 | -6.4 | -2.7 | +1.9 | +11.5 |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | lead2 | +42.6 | -1.3 | -0.2 | +28.4 | -10.2 | +9.6 |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | lead2 | +40.2 | -18.7 | +44.7 | +36.1 | +16.5 | +8.5 |
| 3M Company | lead2 | +4.9 | -29.6 | -3.3 | +46.1 | +26.4 | +6.8 |
| Expedia Group, Inc. | lead2 | +36.5 | -51.5 | +73.3 | +22.8 | +53.3 | +5.8 |
| Hubbell Incorporated | lead2 | +35.6 | +15.1 | +42.4 | +28.9 | +7.4 | +4.7 |
| MercadoLibre, Inc. | lead2 | -19.5 | -37.2 | +85.7 | +8.2 | +18.5 | -1.8 |
| DoorDash, Inc. | lead2 | · | -67.2 | +102.6 | +69.6 | +35 | -6.5 |
| The Walt Disney Company | lead2 | -14.5 | -43.9 | +4.3 | +24.4 | +3.3 | -6.7 |
| Uber | lead2 | -17.8 | -41 | +149 | -2 | +35.5 | -7.3 |
| Roper Technologies | lead2 | +14.7 | -11.6 | +26.9 | -4.1 | -13.8 | -7.9 |
| Workday, Inc. | lead2 | +14 | -38.7 | +65 | -6.5 | -16.8 | -8.8 |
| Axon Enterprise, Inc. | lead2 | +28.1 | +5.7 | +55.7 | +130.1 | -4.4 | -9.2 |
| Constellation Brands, Inc. | lead2 | +16.1 | -6.4 | +5.8 | -7.1 | -36 | -9.2 |
| Salesforce, Inc. | lead2 | +14.2 | -47.8 | +98.5 | +27.8 | -20.2 | -12.9 |
| GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | lead2 | · | · | · | +1.3 | +5.1 | -15.9 |
| Netflix | lead2 | +11.4 | -51.1 | +65.1 | +83.1 | +5.2 | -16.5 |
| Stryker Corporation | lead2 | +10.2 | -7.4 | +23.8 | +21.3 | -1.5 | -20.4 |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | lead2 | +31.7 | -38 | +36.1 | -25.5 | +63.6 | -20.9 |
| Comcast Corporation | lead2 | -2.2 | -28.7 | +29.1 | -11.8 | -17.3 | -22.3 |
| Adobe Inc. | lead2 | +13.4 | -40.7 | +77.3 | -25.5 | -21.3 | -23.9 |
| Autodesk, Inc. | lead2 | -7.9 | -33.5 | +30.3 | +21.4 | +0.1 | -26.4 |
| Coupang | lead2 | · | -49.9 | +10.1 | +35.8 | +7.3 | -35.2 |
| Fair Isaac Corporation | lead2 | -15.1 | +38 | +94.5 | +71 | -15.1 | -44.9 |
| Intuit Inc. | lead2 | +70.3 | -39.1 | +61.8 | +1.2 | +6.1 | -53.7 |
| Corteva, Inc. | lead2 | +23.6 | +25.6 | -17.5 | +20.2 | +18.9 | -80.1 |
| Amazon | lead1 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +12 |
| Seagate Technology | node | +87.5 | -51.4 | +69.1 | +4.1 | +225.3 | +209.1 |
| Hoya Corporation | benef1 | +10.8 | -3 | +34.4 | +11.3 | +24.9 | -2.5 |
| Phison Electronics | benef1 | +26.8 | -10.7 | +45.1 | -6.7 | +418.3 | -12.8 |
| Micron Technology | benef2 | +24.2 | -45.9 | +71.9 | -1 | +240.2 | +256.4 |
| Kioxia | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +1082.1 | +155 |
| TSMC | benef2 | +12.1 | -36.7 | +42.3 | +92.6 | +55.9 | +50.3 |
YTD as of 2026-09-04 · source: Yahoo Finance
Seagate Technology operates across Nearline HDD (AI mass storage). It surged +225.3% in 2025 and +209.1% in 2026. The stock (+209.1%) is ahead of both its demand side (avg +8%) and supply side (avg -10.4%). Having run ahead of its chain, it is the first spot to give back if customer numbers fail to follow. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is Amazon (+12%) and the furthest behind is Phison Electronics (-14.7%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. A picks-and-shovels layer storing AI training and inference data, a mass-storage axis distinct from NAND.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $1,037 · Price $847.72 (09-05) · Upside +22%
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