Defense systems · Drones & hypersonics
Kratos Defense
A defense firm spanning jet drones (XQ-58 Valkyrie), hypersonics (MACH-TB), propulsion, satellite ground systems and C5ISR. 2025 revenue guidance $1.32-1.33B, Q3 +26%. Surging hypersonics and drone bookings point to $1.6B in 2026 and $1.9B in 2027. An unmanned and hypersonic defense axis.
Business categories Uncrewed Defense Systems · Defense · primary Missiles & Propulsion · Defense Defense Electronics & Sensors · Defense
KTOS Updated Jul 12, 2026 6 AI consumers· 4 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Kratos Defense is directly linked to 4 companies (3 supply, 1 revenue relationships) and reaches 40 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 5 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · 2025 revenue $1.32-1.33B
- Customer concentration · Surging hypersonics and drone bookings.
- Segments · Drones (XQ-58)/propulsion · Hypersonics (MACH-TB) · Space ground/C5ISR
Revenue from
- US DoD · defense (UAVs · hypersonics) High confidence· Revenue ~$1.3B · 2025 · 2025 revenue guidance
XQ-58 drones, MACH-TB hypersonics and satellite ground systems to the DoD. - Allies · space (C5ISR · propulsion) Medium confidence
Allied, space-launch and C5ISR. - Lockheed Martin Medium confidence
Supplies hypersonic/drone subcontract work to primes (Lockheed).
Pays to
- NVIDIA Medium confidence
Uses NVIDIA compute for drone autonomy and ground-system AI. - Karman Holdings Medium confidence
Sources hypersonic/missile propulsion and payload from Karman. - Teledyne Technologies Medium confidence
EO/IR sensors to Kratos drones. - Propulsion · components · manufacturing (undisclosed) Low confidence
Jet engines, propulsion and electronics.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Aerospace Industries | lead2 | +15.4 | +34.6 | +7 | +5.5 | +217.9 | -24.6 |
| Lockheed Martin | lead1 | +3.2 | +40.5 | -4.3 | +10 | +2.5 | +10.6 |
| Kratos Defense | node | -29.3 | -46.8 | +96.6 | +30 | +187.8 | -37 |
| NVIDIA | benef1 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +23.2 |
| Teledyne Technologies | benef1 | +11.5 | -8.5 | +11.6 | +4 | +10 | +20.2 |
| Karman Holdings | benef1 | · | · | · | · | · | -55.5 |
| Nan Ya PCB | benef2 | +110.6 | -46.7 | -0.5 | -38.3 | +188.2 | +280.5 |
| Micron Technology | benef2 | +24.2 | -45.9 | +71.9 | -1 | +240.2 | +256.4 |
| Unimicron | benef2 | +133.5 | -30.2 | +35.2 | -19.7 | +175.7 | +236.2 |
| ASE Technology | benef2 | +38.3 | -12.8 | +60.9 | +10.1 | +65.6 | +191.3 |
| Nebius Group | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +202.2 | +170.5 |
| Kioxia | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +1082.1 | +155 |
| Ibiden | benef2 | +30.4 | -19.6 | +51.6 | -38.6 | +261 | +149.3 |
| Lumentum | benef2 | +11.6 | -50.7 | +0.5 | +60.1 | +339.1 | +139.1 |
| Murata Manufacturing | benef2 | -14 | -11.7 | +24.7 | -16.5 | +29.9 | +131.5 |
| Astera Labs | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +25.6 | +105.7 |
| SK hynix | benef2 | -0.4 | -25.6 | +53.9 | +48.6 | +361.1 | +85.3 |
| Corning | benef2 | +5.9 | -11.6 | -1.2 | +60.6 | +87.8 | +77.2 |
| Coherent | benef2 | -10 | -48.6 | +24 | +117.6 | +94.8 | +69.4 |
| Samsung Electronics | benef2 | -9 | -14.2 | +20.9 | -26.4 | +212.9 | +63.8 |
| Delta Electronics | benef2 | -3.4 | +10.4 | -0.3 | +59.2 | +183.8 | +61.9 |
| Keysight Technologies | benef2 | +56.3 | -17.2 | -7 | +1 | +26.5 | +61 |
| Monolithic Power | benef2 | +35.5 | -27.8 | +79.8 | -5.6 | +54.5 | +53.7 |
| Analog Devices | benef2 | +21 | -4.9 | +23.4 | +8.8 | +29.8 | +51.1 |
| TSMC | benef2 | +12.1 | -36.7 | +42.3 | +92.6 | +55.9 | +50.3 |
| Wistron | benef2 | +7.9 | +9.7 | +272.7 | -1.6 | +22.7 | +49.7 |
| onsemi | benef2 | +107.5 | -8.2 | +33.9 | -24.5 | -14.1 | +37.4 |
| Pegatron | benef2 | -5.9 | +0.6 | +35.3 | +21.2 | -23.8 | +34.5 |
| Amphenol | benef2 | +34.9 | -12 | +31.5 | +41.3 | +96.1 | +29.8 |
| Eoptolink | benef2 | -10.1 | -27.7 | +136.6 | +197 | +368.8 | +29.1 |
| InnoLight | benef2 | -30.7 | -18.3 | +253.7 | +12 | +468.1 | +25.6 |
| Digital Realty | benef2 | +30.7 | -41 | +39.9 | +35.9 | -10.1 | +23.4 |
| ABB | benef2 | +23.9 | +7.3 | +18.9 | +39 | +36.1 | +18.4 |
| King Yuan Electronics (KYEC) | benef2 | +26.7 | -7.7 | +132.4 | +38.6 | +171 | +8.4 |
| Recursion Pharmaceuticals | benef2 | · | -55 | +27.9 | -31.4 | -39.5 | +6.6 |
| BlackRock | benef2 | +29.4 | -20.4 | +17.9 | +29.3 | +6.6 | +2.8 |
| TE Connectivity | benef2 | +35.1 | -27.7 | +24.6 | +3.5 | +61.1 | -3 |
| Luxshare Precision | benef2 | -11.9 | -30.2 | -21.2 | +58.8 | +29.3 | -7.4 |
| BYD Electronics | benef2 | -56.1 | +16 | -0.4 | +60.6 | -19.4 | -24.1 |
| Sidus Space | benef2 | · | · | -91.9 | -44.4 | -35.9 | -50.6 |
YTD as of 2026-09-04 · source: Yahoo Finance
Kratos Defense operates across Nasdaq, Defense, Drones & hypersonics. After +187.8% in 2025, it gave back -37% in 2026. The supply side (avg -0.7%) has moved harder than the stock (-37%). That is the classic bottleneck pattern: supplier volume leverage is being priced before this layer's own margin. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is NVIDIA (+23.7%) and the furthest behind is Karman Holdings (-45.4%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. An unmanned and hypersonic defense axis.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $76 · Price $47.82 (09-04) · Upside +59%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush · Sam Brandeis | Outperform | $85 | Jun 30, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| UBS · Gavin Parsons | Neutral | $60 | Jun 29, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| J.P. Morgan · Seth Seifman | Overweight | $82 | Jun 16, 2026 | Report ↗ |
Buy-side consensus holds on drone and hypersonics momentum, but late-June saw a split: Wedbush initiated at Buy while UBS slashed its target from $82 to $60 on valuation.
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