Obesity & diabetes drugs · Mounjaro & Zepbound
Lilly (Eli)
Eli Lilly dominates the obesity/diabetes supercycle with its GIP/GLP-1 dual agonist tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) (NYSE LLY, S&P 500). FY2025 growth — revenue $65.2bn (+45%), net income $20.6bn (+95%) — is effectively all tirzepatide: Mounjaro plus Zepbound totaled $36.5bn, 56% of company revenue, overtaking Merck's Keytruda ($31.6bn) as the world's #1 drug franchise, with obesity drug Zepbound up +175%. The franchise's bottleneck is supply, not demand — demand is near-unlimited and the real revenue ceiling is set by manufacturing capacity (2025 capacity up 1.6x, new U.S. sites) and insurance coverage. The next re-rating trigger is oral GLP-1 orforglipron (2026 launch), which relaxes injectable limits and re-expands the addressable market.
Business categories Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · Biopharma & Life Sciences · primary
LLY Updated Oct 9, 2026 5 AI consumers· 2 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Lilly (Eli) is directly linked to 8 companies (5 supply, 3 revenue relationships) and reaches 15 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 15 dated sources, 4 of them primary filings (as of 2026-10-09).
Annual return · 2026-10-09'21+66.1%'22+34.3%'23+60.9%'24+33.3%'25+40.2%YTD+10.3%
Money in ▸Obesity & diabetes prescription demand (tirzepatide)●Amount $36.5BCardinal Health (US wholesaler, big three)●Market share 10%McKesson (US wholesaler, big three)●Market share 10%Cencora (US wholesaler, big three)●Market share 10%
Lilly (Eli)$65.18bn
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · $65.18bn (FY2025, +45%)
- Customer concentration · The year 56% of revenue concentrated in one franchise, tirzepatide — the bottleneck is capacity and insurance coverage, not demand. Net income $20.6bn (+95%), 67% U.S. ($43.5bn). Next legs: oral orforglipron (2026) and Alzheimer's donanemab. FY2026 guidance $80-83bn.
- Segments · Incretins (tirzepatide: Mounjaro, Zepbound) · Legacy diabetes & other · Oncology, immunology & neuroscience (Verzenio, donanemab)
Revenue from
- Obesity & diabetes prescription demand (tirzepatide) High confidence· Amount $36.5B · FY2025 티르제파티드
The entirety of growth and now the world's #1 drug franchise — tirzepatide (Mounjaro $23.0B, +99%; Zepbound $13.5B, +175%) totaled $36.5B, 56% of FY2025 revenue, overtaking Merck's Keytruda ($31.6B). The bottleneck is supply, not demand: demand is effectively unlimited, and the real revenue ceiling is set by manufacturing capacity and insurance coverage. The next leg is oral orforglipron (2026 launch), which relaxes injectable constraints and re-expands the market.Mentions EN Morgan Stanley (via TipRanks) Published Jul 8, 2026: Morgan Stanley raises Eli Lilly target to $1,347, keeps OverweightConfirms KO Financial News (KR) Published Nov 22, 2025: Zepbound maker Eli Lilly crosses $1 trillion market capConfirms EN European Pharmaceutical Review Published May 1, 2025: Lilly boosts Lebanon site to $9B for tirzepatide APIConfirms EN Fierce Pharma Published Apr 1, 2025: Lilly commits $3B to China manufacturing, local CDMO partnerships - Cardinal Health (US wholesaler, big three) High confidence· Market share 10% · FY2025 (각 10%+)
A direct channel for Lilly's revenue — the 10-K discloses that the three U.S. wholesalers (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal) each account for 10%+ of consolidated revenue. Lilly sells to these wholesalers rather than pharmacies, so as one of the big three, this distribution concentration is both channel bargaining power and the layer where the gross-to-net gap (rebates, PBMs) forms. - McKesson (US wholesaler, big three) High confidence· Market share 10% · FY2025 (각 10%+)
A direct channel for Lilly's revenue — the 10-K discloses that the three U.S. wholesalers (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal) each account for 10%+ of consolidated revenue. Lilly sells to these wholesalers rather than pharmacies, so as the largest U.S. wholesaler, this distribution concentration is both channel bargaining power and the layer where the gross-to-net gap (rebates, PBMs) forms. - Cencora (US wholesaler, big three) High confidence· Market share 10% · FY2025 (각 10%+)
A direct channel for Lilly's revenue — the 10-K discloses that the three U.S. wholesalers (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal) each account for 10%+ of consolidated revenue. Lilly sells to these wholesalers rather than pharmacies, so (formerly AmerisourceBergen), this distribution concentration is both channel bargaining power and the layer where the gross-to-net gap (rebates, PBMs) forms.
Pays to
- ABL Bio High confidence· Amount 3,807,246,400,000원 · ABL 그랩바디-B 라이선스인 · Total KRW 3,807.2bn, upfront KRW 58.5bn
A pipeline bet beyond incretins — Lilly licensed ABL Bio's Grabody-B blood-brain-barrier (BBB) shuttle platform for up to KRW 3,807.2bn (~$2.6B), with a KRW 58.5bn ($40M) upfront, to develop and commercialize multiple targets. It is a long-dated option to diversify an obesity-heavy revenue base into neuroscience and beyond. - Incyte Corporation High confidence· Amount $145M · FY2025 · Product royalty revenue from Lilly sales of OLUMIANT
Lilly sells OLUMIANT in licensed territories and pays Incyte royalties based on net sales, from which Incyte recognized $144.6 million of OLUMIANT royalty revenue in FY2025. - AbCellera Biologics High confidence
AI antibody-discovery partner. COVID-19 antibodies (bamlanivimab, bebtelovimab) in 2020, expanded in July 2024 to multi-target immunology, cardiovascular and neuroscience work. Lilly pays upfront and research fees plus milestones and royalties; amounts undisclosed.Confirms EN AbCellera IR Published Jul 31, 2024: AbCellera and Lilly Expand Collaboration to Develop Antibody MedicinesConfirms KO Medical Times Published Mar 18, 2020: Lilly starts joint development of COVID-19 antibody therapy - CDMO·충전 파트너 (비공개) Medium confidence
An external buffer on the capacity ramp — the GLP-1 injectable bottleneck lies more in sterile fill-finish than in API, so Lilly uses external CDMO and fill-finish partners alongside its own buildout. Individual contracts are mostly undisclosed, but this outsourcing headroom is the lever that raises the near-term capacity ceiling.Mentions EN Fierce Pharma Published Apr 1, 2025: Lilly commits $3B to China manufacturing, local CDMO partnerships - Veeva Systems Medium confidence
Eli Lilly is an established large-pharma customer of Veeva and committed to a global Vault CRM rollout in 2026, while contract value and customer-specific revenue share were not disclosed.Confirms KO Samsung Securities Published Oct 20, 2020: Veeva Systems: Healthcare-focused SaaS from Clinical Development to Commercialization - West Pharmaceutical Services Medium confidence
Eli Lilly purchases packaging materials for its weight-loss drugs from West, and West's revenue attributable to this customer has not been disclosed.Mentions KO Maeil Business Newspaper Published Nov 25, 2025: [MK Signal] Buy signal appears for pharmaceutical packaging company West Pharmaceutical ServicesConfirms EN DBS Group Research Published Sep 5, 2025: West Pharmaceutical Services Inc: Guidance raised on strong biologics tailwinds
Investments
- Manufacturing capacity buildout (Lebanon API, China, new US sites) High confidence· Amount $9B · 레바논 API 사이트
Upfront investment where capacity is the revenue ceiling — the Lebanon, Indiana tirzepatide API site was raised from $3.7B to $9B (online end-2026), plus $3B in China and multiple new U.S. sites. Lilly lifted 2025 production capacity to 1.6x the prior year, and this capacity ramp effectively pre-commits future revenue. Separate lines are being built for oral orforglipron.Confirms EN European Pharmaceutical Review Published May 1, 2025: Lilly boosts Lebanon site to $9B for tirzepatide APIConfirms EN Fierce Pharma Published Apr 1, 2025: Lilly commits $3B to China manufacturing, local CDMO partnerships
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS Health | lead2 | +54.9 | -7.6 | -12.5 | -40.8 | +84.3 | +24.7 |
| Walmart Inc | lead2 | +2 | -0.5 | +12.9 | +74 | +24.5 | +0.6 |
| Cardinal Health, Inc. | lead1 | -0.4 | +54.1 | +34.1 | +19 | +76.3 | +21.1 |
| McKesson Corporation | lead1 | +44.2 | +51.8 | +24.1 | +23.7 | +44.5 | +14.8 |
| Cencora, Inc. | lead1 | +44.1 | +26.3 | +25.3 | +10.4 | +51.5 | -1.4 |
| Lilly (Eli) | node | +66.1 | +34.3 | +60.9 | +33.3 | +40.2 | +10.3 |
| AbCellera Biologics | benef1 | · | -29.2 | -43.6 | -48.7 | +16.7 | +234.2 |
| West Pharmaceutical Services | benef1 | +65.9 | -49.7 | +50 | -6.8 | -15.7 | +23.8 |
| Veeva Systems | benef1 | -6.2 | -36.8 | +19.3 | +9.2 | +6.2 | +23.2 |
| Incyte Corporation | benef1 | -15.6 | +9.4 | -21.8 | +10 | +43 | +14.2 |
| ABL Bio | benef1 | +15.9 | -31.3 | +14.2 | +65.2 | +443.9 | -63.9 |
| ExxonMobil | benef2 | +57.6 | +87.4 | -6.3 | +11.3 | +16 | +35.2 |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | benef2 | +2.9 | +19 | -26.1 | +15.8 | +0.1 | +14.5 |
| Amazon | benef2 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +12 |
| BlackRock | benef2 | +29.4 | -20.4 | +17.9 | +29.3 | +6.6 | +2.8 |
| Salesforce, Inc. | benef2 | +14.2 | -47.8 | +98.5 | +27.8 | -20.2 | -12.9 |
YTD as of 2026-10-09 · source: Yahoo Finance
Lilly (Eli) operates across S&P 500, Pharma, GLP-1 supercycle leader. It is +7.5% in 2026. The stock (+7.5%) and its supply side (avg -63.9%) are moving in step. The next re-rating trigger is oral GLP-1 orforglipron (2026 launch), which relaxes injectable limits and re-expands the addressable market.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04← All companiesMarkdown · JSON · Customers · Suppliers · Ripple