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Estée Lauder Companies Inc.","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":40,"2022":-32.3,"2023":-40.1,"2024":-47.6,"2025":42.1,"2026":0.2}},{"slug":"qualcomm","name":"Qualcomm","name_en":"Qualcomm","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":22.3,"2022":-38.6,"2023":35.1,"2024":8.3,"2025":13.8,"2026":0.2}},{"slug":"amorepacific","name":"아모레퍼시픽","name_en":"Amorepacific","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-30.1,"2022":-5.7,"2023":-18.4,"2024":9.9,"2025":8.2,"2026":-1.2}},{"slug":"mitsubishi-motors","name":"미쓰비시자동차","name_en":"Mitsubishi Motors","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":37.1,"2022":53.5,"2023":-3.9,"2024":0.9,"2025":-15.3,"2026":-1.3}},{"slug":"exelon","name":"엑셀론","name_en":"Exelon","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":41.5,"2022":8.3,"2023":-14,"2024":9.2,"2025":20,"2026":-1.5}},{"slug":"sunny-optical","name":"순위광학(써니옵티컬)","name_en":"Sunny 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S.p.A.","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":11.3,"2022":50.3,"2023":73.6,"2024":89.1,"2025":88.1,"2026":-9.3}},{"slug":"fabrinet","name":"Fabrinet","name_en":"Fabrinet","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":52.7,"2022":8.2,"2023":48.4,"2024":15.5,"2025":107.1,"2026":-10.5}},{"slug":"ionq","name":"IonQ","name_en":"IonQ","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2022":-79.3,"2023":259.1,"2024":237.1,"2025":7.4,"2026":-11.9}},{"slug":"take-two-interactive","name":"테이크투 인터랙티브","name_en":"Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-14.5,"2022":-41.4,"2023":54.6,"2024":14.4,"2025":39.1,"2026":-16.6}},{"slug":"mitsubishi-heavy-industries","name":"미쓰비시중공업","name_en":"Mitsubishi Heavy Industries","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":7.2,"2022":68.3,"2023":100.5,"2024":134.2,"2025":98.3,"2026":-16.7}},{"slug":"transdigm-group","name":"트랜스다임 그룹","name_en":"TransDigm Group Incorporated","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":2.8,"2022":1.8,"2023":66.6,"2024":32.3,"2025":12.2,"2026":-16.7}},{"slug":"abbott-laboratories","name":"애보트","name_en":"Abbott Laboratories","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":30.5,"2022":-20.7,"2023":2.3,"2024":4.8,"2025":12.9,"2026":-19}},{"slug":"lg-display","name":"LG디스플레이","name_en":"LG Display","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-6.8,"2022":-30.9,"2023":-8.5,"2024":-20.6,"2025":26.2,"2026":-21.8}},{"slug":"alibaba","name":"알리바바","name_en":"Alibaba Group","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-49,"2022":-25.8,"2023":-10.8,"2024":11.8,"2025":75.8,"2026":-22}},{"slug":"byd-electronics","name":"BYD일렉트로닉스","name_en":"BYD Electronics","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-56.1,"2022":16,"2023":-0.4,"2024":60.6,"2025":-19.4,"2026":-24.1}},{"slug":"kai","name":"한국항공우주산업 (KAI)","name_en":"Korea Aerospace Industries","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":15.4,"2022":34.6,"2023":7,"2024":5.5,"2025":217.9,"2026":-24.6}},{"slug":"qubt","name":"Quantum Computing Inc","name_en":"Quantum Computing Inc","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-75.8,"2022":-55.7,"2023":-39.5,"2024":1712.7,"2025":-38,"2026":-27.5}},{"slug":"las-vegas-sands","name":"라스베이거스 샌즈","name_en":"Las Vegas Sands Corp.","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-36.8,"2022":27.7,"2023":3.1,"2024":6.2,"2025":29.5,"2026":-30.6}},{"slug":"rigetti","name":"Rigetti Computing","name_en":"Rigetti Computing","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2022":-92.9,"2023":35.1,"2024":1449.2,"2025":45.2,"2026":-31.4}},{"slug":"trip-com-group","name":"트립닷컴그룹(씨트립)","name_en":"Trip.com Group","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2022":44.5,"2023":-3,"2024":95.8,"2025":-12.2,"2026":-36.8}},{"slug":"nike","name":"Nike","name_en":"Nike","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2021":18.7,"2022":-29,"2023":-6,"2024":-29.1,"2025":-13.8,"2026":-44.1}},{"slug":"d-wave","name":"D-Wave Quantum","name_en":"D-Wave Quantum","tier":3,"returns_yearly":{"2022":-85.3,"2023":-38.9,"2024":854.5,"2025":211.3,"2026":-44.3}},{"slug":"honeywell-aerospace","name":"하니웰 에어로스페이스","name_en":"Honeywell Aerospace Inc.","tier":3,"returns_yearly":null},{"slug":"arianegroup","name":"아리안그룹","name_en":"ArianeGroup","tier":3,"returns_yearly":null},{"slug":"anthropic","name":"Anthropic","name_en":"Anthropic","tier":3,"returns_yearly":null},{"slug":"cerebras","name":"Cerebras","name_en":"Cerebras Systems","tier":3,"returns_yearly":null},{"slug":"siemens-eda","name":"Siemens EDA","name_en":"Siemens EDA","tier":3,"returns_yearly":null}],"analysis":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 소비 지출과 신용의 시계다. 주가는 2023년 +28.7%, 2024년 +60.3%, 2025년 +26.0%로 고객 지출 회복을 먼저 반영했지만 2026년에는 -15.8%로 돌아섰다. 같은 기간 핵심 제휴사 델타는 +19.3%, 메리어트는 +9.1%, 힐튼은 +8.5%여서 제휴 지급을 받는 공급단이 뒤늦게 앞섰다. 2026년 2분기 카드회원 지출은 9% 늘었으므로 주가 약세가 거래량 붕괴에서 온 것은 아니다. 높은 보상·마케팅 비용, 프리미엄 카드 경쟁, 신용비용과 밸류에이션이 이 사슬의 전파를 끊을 수 있다. 버크셔는 지분 22.5%를 유지했지만 2026년 수익률은 +0.7%로, 아멕스와도 제휴사와도 다른 자본배분 시계에 있다.","analysis_en":"American Express runs on the consumer-spending and credit clock. Its shares rose 28.7% in 2023, 60.3% in 2024 and 26.0% in 2025, pricing the spending recovery early, then fell 15.8% in 2026. Its partner layer moved the other way: Delta gained 19.3%, Marriott 9.1% and Hilton 8.5%, so the recipients of partnership payments became the late leaders. Q2 2026 Card Member spending still grew 9%, which argues against a collapse in transaction volume as the cause of the stock decline. Rewards and marketing costs, premium-card competition, credit costs and valuation can break the propagation pattern. Berkshire still owned 22.5%, but its 0.7% 2026 return reflects a separate capital-allocation clock.","analysis_asof":"2026-10-09"},"edges":[{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"가맹점","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"가맹점 할인수익","value":37401000000,"period":"FY2025","basis_en":"Merchant discount revenue","qualifier":null},"note":"가맹점은 아메리칸 익스프레스 결제망에서 거래를 처리한 대가로 할인수수료를 낸다. 2025년 할인수익은 374.01억달러로 가장 큰 수익원이었다. 2026년 2분기 카드회원 결제액도 전년 동기보다 9% 늘었다.","note_en":"Merchants pay discount fees for transactions processed on the American Express network. Discount revenue was its largest revenue source at $37.401 billion in 2025, while Q2 2026 Card Member spending rose 9% year over year.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-07-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000322/axp-20260630.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2026년 2분기 Form 10-Q","title_en":"American Express Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","excerpt":"2026년 2분기 결제액은 4,558억달러로 전년 동기보다 9% 증가했다.","excerpt_en":"Q2 2026 billed business was $455.8 billion, up 9% year over year."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"AP 통신","publisher_en":"Associated Press","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-07-24","url":"https://apnews.com/article/fa19578e2c0aefbaaae262b23a56f135","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2분기 이익, 지출 증가와 연체율 하락으로 상승","title_en":"American Express Q2 profit rises driven by higher spending and fewer delinquencies","excerpt":"AP는 2분기 회원당 평균 결제액이 6,759달러로 전년 6,393달러보다 늘었다고 보도했다.","excerpt_en":"AP reported average spending of $6,759 per Card Member, up from $6,393 a year earlier."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"한국신용카드학회","publisher_en":"Korean Credit Card Research Institute","kind":"research","lang":"ko","published_at":"2026-05-08","url":"https://www.creditcard.re.kr/files/board.7/1778221408422337000.pdf","title":"카드사의 사업투자 방향과 제도변화","title_en":"Business Investment Directions and Regulatory Changes for Card Companies","excerpt":"한국신용카드학회 연구자료는 아멕스의 2025년 가맹점 수수료 수익을 374.01억달러로 제시한다.","excerpt_en":"The Korean Credit Card Research Institute reports $37.401 billion of 2025 merchant-fee revenue."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"할인수익은 가맹점이 아메리칸 익스프레스 발급 결제를 수락하며 지급하는 수수료에서 발생했고 2025년 374.01억달러였다.","excerpt_en":"Discount revenue, its largest revenue source, was $37.401 billion in 2025."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"카드 회원","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"순 카드 수수료","value":9993000000,"period":"FY2025","basis_en":"Net card fees","qualifier":null},"note":"카드 회원은 연회비와 대출 이자를 낸다. 2025년 순 카드 수수료는 99.93억달러였고 회사는 프리미엄·고신용 고객의 지출, 대출, 수수료를 결합해 수익을 만든다.","note_en":"Card Members pay annual fees and interest on revolving balances. Net card fees reached $9.993 billion in 2025, and the model combines spending, lending and fee revenues from a premium, high-credit-quality customer base.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"AP 통신","publisher_en":"Associated Press","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-07-24","url":"https://apnews.com/article/fa19578e2c0aefbaaae262b23a56f135","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2분기 이익, 지출 증가와 연체율 하락으로 상승","title_en":"American Express Q2 profit rises driven by higher spending and fewer delinquencies","excerpt":"신규 고객 300만명 중 약 4분의 3이 연회비 카드에 가입했다.","excerpt_en":"About three quarters of the three million new Q2 customers chose cards with annual fees."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-07-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000322/axp-20260630.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2026년 2분기 Form 10-Q","title_en":"American Express Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","excerpt":"2026년 2분기 순이자비용 차감 매출은 196.37억달러로 10% 증가했다.","excerpt_en":"Q2 2026 revenue net of interest expense rose 10% to $19.637 billion."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"한국신용카드학회","publisher_en":"Korean Credit Card Research Institute","kind":"research","lang":"ko","published_at":"2026-05-08","url":"https://www.creditcard.re.kr/files/board.7/1778221408422337000.pdf","title":"카드사의 사업투자 방향과 제도변화","title_en":"Business Investment Directions and Regulatory Changes for Card Companies","excerpt":"한국신용카드학회 자료도 2025년 순 카드 수수료 99.93억달러를 제시한다.","excerpt_en":"The Korean research presentation also reports $9.993 billion of 2025 net card fees."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"2025년 순 카드 수수료는 99.93억달러였고, 연회비는 카드 종류와 계정당 카드 수에 따라 달라진다.","excerpt_en":"Net card fees were $9.993 billion in 2025 and vary by card type and number of cards per account."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"델타항공","counterparty_slug":"delta-air-lines","confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"델타 스카이마일스 제휴 보수","value":8200000000,"period":"FY2025","basis_en":"Remuneration under the Delta SkyMiles partnership","qualifier":null},"note":"델타는 아메리칸 익스프레스의 최대 전략 파트너다. 스카이마일스 공동브랜드 카드와 멤버십 리워즈 계약에 따라 아메리칸 익스프레스가 델타에 지급한 2025년 보수는 82억달러였다.","note_en":"Delta is American Express's largest strategic partner. American Express paid Delta $8.2 billion in 2025 under the SkyMiles cobrand and Membership Rewards relationship.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-11","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm","title":"델타항공 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"Delta Air Lines 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"델타는 2025년 아메리칸 익스프레스 보수가 82억달러였다고 공시했다.","excerpt_en":"Delta disclosed $8.2 billion of remuneration from American Express in 2025."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"아멕스는 델타를 최대 전략 파트너로 명시했고 델타 카드가 전 세계 결제액의 약 13%, 카드회원 대출의 약 21%를 차지한다고 밝혔다.","excerpt_en":"American Express calls Delta its largest strategic partner; the portfolio represented about 13% of billed business and 21% of Card Member loans."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"델타항공","publisher_en":"Delta Air Lines","kind":"ir","lang":"ko","published_at":"2023-09-14","url":"https://pro.delta.com/content/agency/kr/ko/news/news-archive/2023/september-2023/skymiles-program-changes-announced.html","title":"스카이마일스 프로그램 변경 사항 발표","title_en":"SkyMiles Program Changes Announced","excerpt":"델타의 한국어 안내는 스카이마일스 아메리칸 익스프레스 카드 구매로 등급을 적립하는 공동브랜드 구조를 확인한다.","excerpt_en":"Delta's Korean-language notice confirms that eligible SkyMiles American Express card purchases earn status credit."}]},{"direction":"investor","counterparty":"Berkshire Hathaway","counterparty_slug":"berkshire-hathaway","confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"share","unit":"percent","as_of":"2026-06-30","basis":"아메리칸 익스프레스 발행주식 중 버크셔 보유 비율","value":22.5,"period":"2026-06-30","basis_en":"Berkshire ownership of American Express shares outstanding","qualifier":null},"note":"버크셔 해서웨이는 2026년 6월 말 아메리칸 익스프레스 1억5,160만주를 보유해 발행주식의 22.5%를 차지했다.","note_en":"Berkshire Hathaway owned 151.6 million American Express shares at June 30, 2026, representing 22.5% of shares outstanding.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526341032/brka-20260630.htm","title":"버크셔 해서웨이 2026년 2분기 Form 10-Q","title_en":"Berkshire Hathaway Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","excerpt":"버크셔는 2026년 6월 30일 아메리칸 익스프레스 1억5,160만주, 발행주식의 22.5%를 보유했다.","excerpt_en":"At June 30, 2026, Berkshire owned 151.6 million American Express shares, or 22.5% of shares outstanding."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"힐튼 월드와이드","counterparty_slug":"hilton-worldwide","confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"힐튼 공동브랜드 카드 제휴 지급액","value":null,"period":"FY2025","basis_en":"Payments under the Hilton cobrand arrangement","qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 힐튼 공동브랜드 카드의 지식재산 라이선스와 Hilton Honors 포인트 발행 대가를 지급한다. 상대별 금액은 공개하지 않았다.","note_en":"American Express pays Hilton for intellectual-property licensing and Hilton Honors points issued through its co-branded cards. The counterparty-specific amount is not disclosed.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-11","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm","title":"힐튼 월드와이드 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"Hilton Worldwide Holdings 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"힐튼은 아메리칸 익스프레스 공동브랜드 카드에서 라이선스와 포인트 발행 대가를 받는다고 공시했다.","excerpt_en":"Hilton discloses consideration for licensing and points issued under its American Express cobrand arrangement."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 힐튼 월드와이드와 공동브랜드 카드를 발급한다고 공시했다.","excerpt_en":"American Express identifies Hilton Worldwide as a cobrand partner."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"메리어트 인터내셔널","counterparty_slug":"marriott-international","confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"메리어트 보노이 공동브랜드 카드 제휴 지급액","value":null,"period":"multi-year agreement","basis_en":"Payments under the Marriott Bonvoy cobrand agreement","qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 미국 보노이 공동브랜드 카드 계약에 따라 메리어트에 고정 대가와 카드 사용액 기반 월별 변동 대가를 지급한다. 상대별 금액은 공개하지 않았다.","note_en":"American Express pays Marriott fixed and monthly variable consideration tied primarily to card usage under the U.S. Bonvoy cobrand agreement. The counterparty-specific amount is not disclosed.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-10","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm","title":"메리어트 인터내셔널 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"Marriott International 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"메리어트는 미국에서 아메리칸 익스프레스와 다년 공동브랜드 카드 계약을 맺고 고정·변동 대가를 받는다고 공시했다.","excerpt_en":"Marriott discloses a multi-year U.S. cobrand agreement with fixed and card-usage-linked variable consideration."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 메리어트 인터내셔널을 공동브랜드 카드 파트너로 명시했다.","excerpt_en":"American Express identifies Marriott International as a cobrand partner."}]},{"direction":"investment","counterparty":"Global Business Travel Group","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"type":"amount","unit":"USD","as_of":"2025-12-31","basis":"Global Business Travel Group 지분투자 장부가","value":null,"period":"FY2025","basis_en":"Carrying value of the Global Business Travel Group equity investment","qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 기업 출장 서비스 회사 Global Business Travel Group에 지분을 보유하고 상업 계약도 맺고 있다. 개별 투자액은 공시하지 않았다.","note_en":"American Express holds an equity investment in Global Business Travel Group and also has commercial arrangements with it. The filing does not disclose a standalone investment amount.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"미국 증권거래위원회 EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-06","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm","title":"아메리칸 익스프레스 2025 회계연도 Form 10-K","title_en":"American Express 2025 Form 10-K","excerpt":"아메리칸 익스프레스는 Global Business Travel Group에 지분투자와 상업 계약을 보유한다고 공시했다.","excerpt_en":"American Express discloses an equity investment in, and commercial arrangements with, Global Business Travel Group."}]}]}